How do we calculate Merchant Index?
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The Merchant Index Formula
All values are season percentiles (0β100)
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Deep Dive: FTA/xFTA
The most important part of Merchant Index comes at this expected free throw metric. We analyze every single play of the player's year, and take the location of every shot they made. Location is important because fouls generally happen closer to the basket. We then make a shot profile for that player and given their locations and the frequency of shots, create an expected number of free throw attempts that player should get β if they were just an average player with that many shot attempts. We then compare how many free throws they ACTUALLY got β and by doing this we identify players who draw fouls above what their shot profile predicts.
League-Wide xFTA Rates by Zone
| Court Zone | xFTA Rate | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Restricted Area | 0.644 | Highest foul rate β contact in the paint |
| Paint (Non-RA) | 0.231 | Moderate contact near basket |
| Midrange | 0.434 | High foul rate β pump fakes and contested pull-ups |
| Corner 3 | 0.050 | Minimal contact on perimeter |
| Above-Break 3 | 0.255 | Moderate foul rate β closeout fouls on shooters |
* Empirical rates from league-wide data
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The Merchant Ratio
Now that we have expected free throw attempts from shot location, we compare them to actual FTA. Players who consistently exceed their expected rate are drawing fouls beyond what their shot profile predicts.
Example: Merchant Ratio
Merchant Ratio = Actual FTA / xFTAThresholds: >1.3 = "Merchant", 0.85β1.15 = "Expected", <0.85 = "Under-draws"
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Deep Dive: FTA/36
This metric normalizes free throw attempts by playing time, measuring per-minute foul-drawing rate.
Calculated as: (FTA / Minutes played per game) Γ 36
Some players have high FTA rates but limited minutes. This captures volume.
It ensures we're measuring sustained foul-drawing ability across different usage patterns.
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Deep Dive: Non-Shooting Fouls Drawn (+10%)
This signal captures foul-drawing behavior that happens away from shot attempts β loose-ball fouls, off-ball contact, and charges drawn.
We start with all personal fouls drawn by a player and normalize to per 36 minutes.
Then we subtract shooting fouls (already captured by FTA and Merchant Ratio) to isolate non-shooting fouls drawn.
This identifies players who manufacture fouls on the defensive end or away from the ball β a classic merchant move that wouldn't show up in shooting stats alone.
The +10% weight is a supporting signal that boosts players who flop on non-shooting plays like taking charges, drawing loose-ball fouls, or baiting off-ball contact.
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Deep Dive: Offensive Fouls (-10%)
This is a counter-signal. Players who commit more offensive fouls are initiating contact in ways that get called against them.
Offensive fouls include charges, illegal screens, and pushing off.
High offensive foul rates suggest a contact-heavy style that they are getting called for on either side of the ball.
This component slightly lowers the rating, distinguishing between contact-drawing and foul-baiting. To give a bit of grace to those players who just have a contact heavy style and it gets called both ways.
The negative weight (-10%) means more offensive fouls = lower Merchant Index.
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The Merchant Index Scale
Note: Example players based on 2025-26 season data. Higher ratings indicate greater reliance on free throws relative to shot volume and playing time.
Methodology Version: v6.0 Β· Updated February 2026
Eligibility Rules
Players who don't meet both thresholds are excluded from the leaderboard to ensure ratings reflect sustained behavior, not small-sample noise.
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